Potential Severe Weather Threats This Week

Summary

A slow moving frontal boundary, along with a wave of low pressure, will stall over New England late Tuesday into Wednesday. This system is forecast to bring heavy rains, damaging winds, and coastal flooding to the region.

Additionally, a tropical depression has formed in the North Atlantic between Bermuda and the Bahamas. While this storm is still several days away, forecast models show the possibility of impacts on New England as soon as this weekend. These impacts may include coastal flooding, flooding rains, or damaging winds.

Heavy Rain/Flooding

Due to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico being pulled into the system, there is the potential for a widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall across the state starting Tuesday night and lasting through Wednesday night, with more possible in isolated areas. While rivers and streams are running lower than usual due to the drier than normal weather over the past few weeks, this amount of rainfall may still cause flooding in urban and poor-drainage areas and along rivers and streams, particularly ones prone to flash flooding. The National Weather Service has not yet issued any Flood Watches, but continues to monitor data for a possible issuance.

Wind Damage

As the front moves through the region starting Wednesday, winds from the northeast may gust in excess of 40 mph. These winds are expected to persist through Friday. These winds acting on fully leafed trees could result in downed tree, tree limbs, and power lines. While there is still uncertainty as to the exact extent and impact of the wind damage threat, the area forecast to be most at risk is east coastal Massachusetts, including the Cape and Islands.

Coastal Flooding

Astronomical high tides will persist through this Saturday. There may be splashover and very minor coastal flooding associated with the Tuesday night high tide. Beginning Wednesday, winds will be persistent out of the northeast with the potential of gusting in excess of 40 mph perhaps as late as Friday. From Wednesday through Friday. there is a risk across multiple high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding with pockets of moderate flooding across east-facing shores.

The below graphic from the National Weather Service shows astronomical tide tables for Boston, Sandwich, and Nantucket:

Tropical Depression Eleven

Tropical Depression Eleven formed Sunday night in the North Atlantic between Bermuda and the Bahamas. TD Eleven has a greater than 60% chance of strengthening to a tropical storm over the next 48 hours (after which it will be known as Tropical Storm Joaquin). As of 5:00 PM today, TD Eleven was located about 400 miles southwest of Bermuda, had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and was moving west at 6 mph. Starting Wednesday, TD Eleven is forecast to turn to the north and increase in forward speed, passing east of the Delmarva Peninsula by Saturday afternoon.

The impacts of TD Eleven or its remnants on Massachusetts will depend on its exact track and strength, but if it passes close by or makes landfall in the New England region, flooding rains, damaging winds, and coastal flooding are possible.

The below graphic from the National Hurricane Center shows the forecast track of Tropical Depression Eleven as of 5:00 PM today:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

Attachments

Briefing documents from the National Weather Service offices in Taunton and Albany are attached.

MEMA Operations

The State Emergency Operations Center is operating at Level 1 (Steady State/Monitoring). MEMA will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Eleven. MEMA also participated in a conference call with the National Weather Service this afternoon regarding the potential for severe weather this week. A follow-up conference call will take place tomorrow morning.

MEMA will continue to monitor the situation and will disseminate additional Situational Awareness Statements as necessary.

Stay Informed:
For additional information and updated forecasts, see www.weather.gov/boston (National Weather Service Taunton) and www.weather.gov/albany (National Weather Service Albany)

Utilize Massachusetts Alerts to receive emergency notifications and information from the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service.  Massachusetts Alerts is a free app that is available for Android and iPhones. To learn more about Massachusetts Alerts, and for information on how to download the free app onto your smartphone, visit: www.mass.gov/mema/mobileapp.

Utilize MEMA’s real-time power outage viewer to stay informed about current power outages in your community and region, and across the state, including information from utility companies about restoration times: http://mema.mapsonline.net/public.html

 

Online Resources:
For additional information and resources, visit:
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency at www.mass.gov/mema
MEMA’s Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/MassachusettsEMA
MEMA Twitter: @MassEMA
Federal Emergency Management Agency at www.fema.gov
National Weather Service/Taunton at www.weather.gov/boston
National Weather Service/Albany, NY at www.weather.gov/albany
National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Northeast River Forecast Center: http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/
Mass211 at www.mass211.org

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